Every Petition Tells a Story

Gubernatorial petitions, like pictures, tell stories.

In New York State, 15,000 petitions, it seems, are required to run for Governor without the endorsement of a major party. 15,000 to launch a third party or independent bid, and to force a major party primary. (Unfortunately, I can't find where in the State Election Law it says this, so I have to go off of press accounts. The State Board of Elections Internet site doesn't seem to have a “how to run for Governor” pamphlet or anything, which is regrettable, if unsurprising.)

Further, the conventional wisdom seems to be that one really needs 3 times the required number, or 45,000. Challenges to ones petitions are seen as almost inevitable, and 3 times the required number should render one about challenge-proof.

There's several high-profile, or at least medium-profile, gubernatorial runs going on that are reliant upon petitions rather than upon major party endorsement.

Charles Barron, a former member of the Black Panthers, has gathered 44,500 petitions to run for Governor on his new Freedom Party line. Libertarian Party candidate Warren Redlich filed 34,000 petitions.

Redlich and Barron can fairly be described as fringe candidates. However, the much-ballyhooed Carl Paladino, who is considered a serious candidate, has filed only 28,000 petitions, less than double the required amount, and well under the preferred “3-times what's required” standard. In fact, Paladino's petition numbers are most comparable to those of Kirsten Davis (22,000), the Eliot Spitzer-affiliated madam-turned-candidate. And even Davis's highest-profile supporter, Republican operative Roger Stone, referred to Davis as a “protest candidate,” and expressed support for Paladino, the 28,000-petition man.

In polls, Paladino scores about as well against Cuomo as Lazio does. (Which, it must be said, isn't a great showing.)

Interesting that Roger Stone's “protest candidate,” Davis, and his other favorite, Paladino, who in his words “has a chance” to win, managed to garner a comparable number of petitions. The other fringe candidates, by contrast, managed to garner noticeably more than either Paladino or Davis.

So who really has a chance here?

Petitions tell stories. They tell stories about who has some degree of popular support, and who has the ground operation that's necessary to rally that support. To get people to openly support a candidate on record. Sure, someone might sign a petition in the name of having an open process, and not intend to vote for the candidate. But I think, and the press seems to agree, that signing a petition is really a display of support for a candidate. (One day I should see if any studies have been done on that, actually.)

What stories do these petitions tell us? Well, let me tell you what I think.

I think either Paladino's ground operation is horrid and ineffective, or that he has more support in the context of an anonymous poll than he does when people actually have to stand behind their views. Fewer people will support Paladino in public than in private. And voting, perhaps even in a primary election and definitely in a general election, is, secret ballot regardless, ultimately a public act.

And I think that, either way, Paladino remains a fringe candidate. If Lazio loses the nomination to him it will far more speak ill of Lazio than it speaks well of Paladino.