Thursday, January 14, 2010

The Field

• Introduction
As of the time of writing, the late afternoon of 14 January 2010, there are 5 candidates I am aware of, some declared and some undeclared, for the New York State Governorship.

After looking at the 5 candidates I am aware of at the moment, I came to a depressing realization, that led to a single hope. I realized that all of the 5 carried negatives that were extremely significant, potentially (or in some cases almost definitely) impinging upon their ability to govern the State at this critical moment. And the hope was, simply, that someone else takes up the mantle, and does it soon.

• Name: Steve Levy
• Democrat, Suffolk County
• Current Occupation: County Executive of Suffolk County

I had hopes for Executive Levy. He came on the Statewide scene not trashing his rivals, but simply implying that he could do better than they. However, more recently I have read that he's feuded with the police in his county. If this foretells his relationship with the State Police should he become Governor, it could be a dangerous spot for him to be in. (To negotiate with police unions in a tough manner is one thing, but some of Executive Levy's critics see open hostility.) I have also read that Levy has been so anti-illegal immigrant that some have argued he is anti-Hispanic and anti-immigrant in general. (I haven't examined his immigration statements or positions personally; I'm reacting, at the moment, to the perception. In politics, perception is over half the battle.) Hispanics are found just about everyplace in New York State, they pay taxes, and they've been part of the fabric of life in New York for a very long time. I think it's fair to count it against a politician when that politician apparently goes out of his way to alienate a major demographic of the State. If he wins, he'll be representing Hispanics too, and his Departments usually are understood to have to enforce certain laws as vigorously on behalf of illegal immigrants as on behalf of others.

Levy's response to two Hispanic Assembly Members' promising to oppose him politically was to attempt to file a complaint against them with the Public Integrity Commission (PIC). The, to my mind questionable, theory was that they had threatened to use their offices to harm those who supported Levy.

I find Levy's action to feel eerily similar to the SLAPP Lawsuits that are filed by major corporations in an attempt to silence whistle-blowers and critics; basically it's seeking legal sanction upon those who criticize you. (Imagine what Levy might do as Governor.) Further, Levy also went about this stupidly; the PIC has no jurisdiction over the Legislature.

To my mind that's the kind of thing you should look up before you take such an action.

• Name: David Paterson
• Democrat, Albany County and New York County (Manhattan)
• Current Occupation: Governor of New York State

New York State's first Black and first disabled Governor is a man of many talents, many gifts, and also many flaws. The latter have been especially on display for quite awhile now. He has what The New York Observer called “a complicated relationship with the truth.” His staff often appears to be in disarray. They often present an incoherent or muddled message. (As a recent example, take the Governor's office's unclear response to the Legislature's ethics bill). Paterson's son's recent run-in with the police on its own, wouldn't necessarily mean anything, but it fits Paterson's odd pattern too well to be ignored. And finally there's the bizarre notion he's tried to put forth, that he should be judged on what he wants to do rather than what he is able to actually accomplish.

New Yorkers believe many of Paterson's central messages, but they lack confidence in his ability to actually do much. And, really, who at this point could blame them for their skepticism. Political Scientist Richard Neustadt once wrote that presidential power is the power to persuade. The Governor of New York State has institutional powers that the President would envy, but the Governor still needs that power to persuade. David Paterson has lost it, and there's no realistic way for him to get it back. Even if he somehow wins the election, which seems unlikely, he won't be able to do anything.

And I disagree with the Governor that he should be judged more by his intentions than his actions or accomplishments.

• Name: Rick Lazio
• Republican of somewhere in New York City and somewhere in Long Island (Counties unspecified)
• Current Occupation: Full-time Candidate, as far as I can tell; he has most-recently worked for J.P Morgan Chase and for some kind of advocacy group for CEOs called the Financial Service Forum

Rick Lazio is chiefly known as the man who thought he could beat Hilary Clinton for the U.S. Senate in 2000 by bullying her in a debate, a move which even he now admits was a mistake. However, that he could ever think such a move (he essentially charged across the stage to angrily shove a piece of paper in front of her) was wise speaks poorly for his judgment. Not only did he come across as a bully, but as a bully who was bad at bullying.

I also at this point think that anyone who worked in the financial industry during the early 2000s should be considered suspect. A lot of things that this industry did during this era violated both common sense and all analytical logic.

Also, who has heard of him? Not many. Want to bet that the first two things many voters will find out about him are that he's a bully (a poor one at that) and that he used to work for an advocacy group for CEOs?

• Name: Chris Collins
• Republican of Erie County
• Current Occupation: County Executive of Erie County

The kindest way to talk about Chris Collins's recent actions is to say that he has seriously seriously embarrassed himself. He is supposedly a Christian, but he is a peculiar sort of Christian who allows Nostradamus to enter into his religious thinking, alongside the Bible and other Christian texts. He has, for example, publicly used Nostradamus's writings to claim that Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver is the “Third Antichrist.” The second one, you see, was Adolf Hitler. I forget who the first one was. (Other Christians of this stripe assign the honor of being the “Third Antichrist” to President Obama.) So not only does Collins compare a Jewish politician to a man known for attempting to wipe out Jews, but he resorts to calling his political opponents the “Antichrist,” and uses to bolster the argument the demented writings of a man who is more typically the subject of New Age books, the cover page of the Weekly World News, and an album by the heavy metal band Judas Priest.

And then there's the matter of the recent incident wherein he openly sexually harassed a woman, in the New York State Assembly Chamber, while waiting for Governor Paterson's State of the State speech to start. (And yes, publicly remarking that a woman who can't find a seat would get one if she offered lap dances does in my book qualify as sexual harassment.) The fact that this was done so openly makes him not only a harasser, but a stupid one.

One word: Fail.

• Name: Andrew Cuomo
• Democrat of Albany County and New York County (Manhattan)
• Current Occupation: New York State Attorney General

Andrew Cuomo is currently the most popular candidate in the field, by far. He is definitely electable, at least assuming he doesn't make any major missteps or otherwise screws up. And we know that screw-ups by New York State politicians are almost totally unknown.

However, Cuomo has several negatives as well, which will sooner or later get more publicity than they have so far. The first is his last name. Hardly anyone I have spoken to who lived through his father Mario Cuomo's 12-year reign as Governor of New York remembers it with much fondness. The business climate was considered bad (though it should be noted that “business climate” is a difficult concept at best), and Mario Cuomo was the most recent Governor to engage in layoffs of State workers. Young Andrew was deeply involved in his father's administration.

As Attorney General, Cuomo has pretty much stuck to easy targets, such as Wall Street and Senator Pedro Espada. Cuomo was also on the (legally) “wrong” side of Governor Paterson's battle with the Legislature over the appointment of a Lieutenant Governor. I have analyzed one of the policy proposals Andrew Cuomo made as Attorney General, his plan to manage the largest government employee pension fund. The article is elsewhere on this site. The proposal appeared to be poorly researched, not well thought out, and at the time the article was written there was no publicly available bill to examine, just some Press Releases.

As Governor, Andrew Coomo will not have the luxury of only taking on easy targets, and his judgments and policy proposals will have much more a direct impact on people's lives.

Finally, I must make a highly subjective judgment. I find it difficult to look at Andrew Cuomo, or read anything he or his office has produced, without somehow “feeling” a sense of entitlement oozing off of it. Others may disagree, I know. But to the degree that I'm right, New York surely doesn't need a Governor with a sense of entitlement.

• Conclusion
Quite simply, New York needs another candidate, and needs it badly. I don't ask for perfection, or even near-perfection. But the Empire State, at this juncture, badly needs someone worth having confidence in, rather than someone who is better than the rest.

Sadly, the latter may be all New York can expect.

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